Is the current power supply sufficient to meet the increasing demand for electricity - especially in the context of the charging infrastructure? A study shows that the situation could be less problematic in the future than one might think.
More and more often, countries and cities are turning to electric vehicles in the transport transition, and electric cars are also gaining more acceptance and interest among citizens. The consequence? The share of electric cars will increase considerably over the next two decades. On the one hand, this prediction is to be welcomed as a positive step towards more environmentally friendly mobility. On the other hand, it raises questions about the capacity of the electricity grid to meet this growing demand. After all, as electric cars become more widespread, the demand for energy will also climb accordingly and rely even more heavily on the power grid.
However, an analysis by the energy market research firm BloombergNEF shows that the problem with power supply for e-cars is probably less serious than people think - explains senior analyst Colin Mckerracher. While it is true that on days when demand in several sectors increases, there can often be grid congestion - as was the case this summer with the blackouts in California, for example. But this does not mean, says Mckerracher, that having more e-vehicles on the road in the future will pose an immediate threat to maintaining the power grid. At least not for the present and the still foreseeable future.
According to BNEF forecasts, the number of electric cars on the road will reach 27 million worldwide by the end of the year, with an expected annual electricity consumption of 60 terawatt hours. A large figure, but one that represents only 0.2% of total demand in 2022. That is about as much electricity consumption as the city-state of Singapore has annually. Even in Norway, for example - where battery-powered vehicles now account for about 80 per cent of new registrations and 20 per cent of the total car fleet - the figures remain below the acceptable and sustainable limit of a 1.4 per cent increase in consumption. Likewise, the electric grid should not face insurmountable problems in the next 20 years, which in the extreme case could tip the balance in favour of electric cars. It will still be possible, with adequate preparation, to meet the charging needs of e-cars.
According to BloombergNEF, there will be between 730 million and 1 billion e-cars, depending on the scenario. An increase in electricity demand of between 7% and 9% can therefore be expected, which would rise by a further 11% and 15% percentage points if electric buses and commercial vehicles are included. If complete transport electrification is achieved, on the other hand, the share for this will be 27% of the total electricity demand. A much higher figure than today, but one that should not prove an extremely critical situation for the energy sector.
However, much remains to be done before there can be any talk of purely electric transport. Not only in terms of ensuring a sufficient supply of electricity - preferably from renewable sources, in order to make a real contribution to the eco-turnaround. The infrastructure, starting with the charging network, also needs to be significantly expanded in order to be able to offer sufficient charging options for the growing number of electric vehicles. At the same time, an economic policy framework should be created - for example by price signals for the best time to fill up or indirectly by enforcing further and stricter combustion bans - according to which e-vehicles would be considered the best choice for the environment and citizens. The introduction of further Zero Emission Zones thus does not pose a problem for the power grid either.